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Hee-Song Shin

How does ESG strategy identify the expected risk?

Published on 06/01/23


Background Information:

ESG stands for environmental, social and governance, and it refers to the 3 core factors in measuring corporate sustainability. This term derived from the concept of “triple bottom line”, which is also known as “people, planet, and profits (PPP)”, leading the companies to concentrate on these three Ps instead of an exclusive focus on profits. Since two other elements, people and planet, are equally significant for a commercial enterprise to be sustainable and profitable, this evolved into a concept of ESG, forming the backbone for doing business sustainably and responsibly. The environmental criteria look at how a company contributes to and performs on environmental challenges such as waste, pollution, greenhouse gases, deforestation, and climate etc. Also, the social criteria consider how a company treats its people. Specifically, human capital management, diversity, and equal opportunity, working conditions, health and safety, and misleading sales etc. The governance criteria look at how a company is managed. This criterion assesses remuneration of its executives, and board diversity and structure etc. ESG is based on the simple idea that companies are likely to achieve and deliver strong returns. Therefore, ESG analyses focus on the way whereby companies serve society and how this has an impact on their current and future performance.

ESG considers the future trends as well, including disruptive changes that can have significant implications on the future profitability of the business and its survival in the market. As today's consumers demand sustainable behaviors, the thorough use of ESG policies can dramatically increase returns. ESG profiles can also reduce costs since they improve internal operations and make it easier to keep customers and workers happy. Companies who attempt to improve ESG elements significantly are likely to have a greater chance of outperforming rivals. It can simultaneously assist the environment and society by detecting and evaluating ESG risks and possibilities. ESG considerations are currently being used by an increasing number of companies in an effort to seize economic possibilities. Investors also choose industries and businesses based on their successful ESG results. This results in an ESG integration that is more comprehensive and better positioned to minimize risk and optimize rewards by using ESG criteria to assess potential investment candidates.

ESG criteria are currently used in many mutual funds, brokerage houses, and robo-advisors' products. Investors can also benefit from ESG criteria by avoiding businesses that might be more financially risky due to their environmental or other policies. Recent years have seen some investors concluding that environmental, social, and governance criteria serve more than just ethical purposes. Companies may be able to avoid exposing themselves to risk in order to escape public scrutiny by closely adhering to and adopting ESG principles. An example of this includes the 2010 BP oil spill and the Volkswagen emissions scandal, which both had a significant negative impact on the stock values of the firms and caused losses in the billions of dollars.


Introduction:

Investors now use environmental, social, and governance (ESG) elements more frequently as part of their analytical process to spot important risks and expansion potential. In order to work toward a more sustainable society and a better environment, these issues are becoming more significant in our society. ESG supports the development of an adequate circular economy, the reduction of deforestation, and the reduction of carbon emissions across major economies.

Investors are getting more interested in unit trust investments as a result of adopting the Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) principles to their investments. Corporate social responsibility (CSR), which includes SRI, applies ESG standards like environmental, social, and administrative accountability. ESG criteria are a set of behavior guidelines for businesses that socially responsible investors use to evaluate possible investments. The funds that implement the SRI investment forbid investments in products that are opposed to social responsibility, such as alcohol and tobacco, the production of weapons, and the operation of casinos.

SRI funds respect the carbon footprint (Carbon Intensity) and environmental impact in addition to their concentration on renewable technologies (Climetrics). Some studies, however, contradict the positive effects of SRI investing because they show that the performance of funds that do not adhere to SRI is higher than that of funds that do.


Material and Methods:

When making an investment, the investor must consider the potential risk associated with the value of the investment and the enterprise's overall impact. SRI includes cash, fixed-income investments, and alternative investments in addition to public equity investments (stocks) (private equity, venture capital, and real estate). In a study conducted by Oxford University and Arabesque Partners, 88% of the assessed sources produced positive SRI investment impact results. Always consider the performance of the funds over the last 5 years, 3 years, last year, and the last six months when evaluating the productivity of a fund. Performance refers to the fund's percent rise or reduction throughout the specified time period.

A specific fund's quality can be evaluated using a number of different procedures but converting between them can occasionally be challenging. The synthetic risk and productivity indicator (SRRI) methodology will be used to evaluate the fund data. This indicator connects risk with volatility, and its value can range from 1 to 7. A limit value of 1 corresponds to a low risk, a limit value of 3 to a medium risk, and a limit value of 7 to a severe risk.


Portfolio Theory (Selective Markowitz Model):

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a process for building a portfolio of assets, according to Markowitz Portfolio Selection. This makes it possible for investors to create a portfolio that offers the optimum risk/return trade-off possible. Basic statistical knowledge is needed in order to implement the portfolio development strategy we discuss here. The basic premise of the portfolio theory model is that the investors are prudent and invest for an equivalently long length of time, while the risk is represented by the standard deviation.

Working with a portfolio made up of n investment instruments, each of which has a weight w that makes the sum of the weights equal to 1. In this situation, the weights can even be negative, which necessitates shortening the instrument. The expected yield is then given by the formula:

The yield on the portfolio is then the weighted average of the yields on each asset. The standard deviation of the yields can be used to calculate the estimated risk for each asset. As opposed to the predicted return, the portfolio's estimated risk level is not only a weighted average. The covariance of the yields of the various assets has a significant impact on the standard deviation of the entire portfolio. The following relationship shows the standard deviation of the portfolio with n activities:

It will always be possible to find such a portfolio whose expected risk will be lower than the expected risk of the safest asset, even if the individual assets are not completely correlated (correlation around 1). The quantity of assets in the portfolio need not always have an impact on the diversification effect. The assets' minimal correlation with one another is a key factor. One example of a strong mutual correlation is with stocks belonging to the same industry. The yields on these equities will respond fairly similarly to regional macroeconomic situations as well as global developments. As a result, a portfolio made up of dozens of stocks from the same market sector won't necessarily produce the same results as one made up of numerous firms from various industries.

The ideal portfolio is shown below, showing the point at which the investor's indifference curve intersects the effective border and is tangent to it (located top left). The following figure illustrates the ideal portfolio. Because it is on the highest-positioned indifference curve that nevertheless shares a point with the portfolio, Portfolio D is the best choice for the investor.



Statistical Methods (Pearson’s Chi-Squared Test):

To determine how likely it is that an observed distribution is the result of chance, researchers use the Chi-square test. Because it assesses how well the observed data distribution matches the distribution that would be anticipated if the variables were independent, it is also known as a "goodness of fit" statistic. Pearson’s chi-squared test is the basic and most widely used pair test of independence in a contingent chart. The zero hypothesis is the statement that stochastic magnitudes X1 and X2 are independent; the alternative hypothesis is then the mutual dependence of the stochastic magnitudes. Therefore, there is a higher probability that the stochastic magnitude X1 will not affect the stochastic magnitude X2, in the case of the zero-hypothesis.


Input Data:

The data of capital funds with ESG-respecting factors, as well as data available on the website of Socially Responsible Investment (https://yoursri.com/), have been designated as the input data for verifying the technique. The benefit of using this search engine is having the choice to select funds according to how closely they are related to a particular nation where they can be sold. Table 1 provides a partial view of the data that has been filtered for the Czech Republic.

Similar methods were used to gather data for Table 2 that does not account for ESG issues in financial instruments. The Morning Star (http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/) database has been utilized to draw funds from the various databases and their descriptive data. Here, specific information about each fund's performance is offered.


Results and Conclusions:

According to the application of the Markowitz model on select investment funds of the ESG and other funds, it is necessary to input a larger data set of assessed data at the start to achieve better evidence. The data would be suitable to evaluate the funds across a whole area or by the investment focus because data do not fully reflect the described reality in the given funds area. In the volatility values achieved with ESG funds, there is an evident fluctuation of the fund value, showing a higher risk to a loss of executed investments.

In order to apply this methodology to the entire market area, such as the Green Economy, Water Utilization, and Sustainable Agriculture in the form of ESG funds, more input data will need to be collected and a larger input data set will need to be created before this research can begin. Small investors will be able to evaluate their possible investments in this field as a result.



References

Breaking down Finance. "Markowitz Portfolio Selection." Breaking down Finance,

Breaking Down Finance, breakingdownfinance.com/finance-topics/

modern-portfolio-theory/markowitz-portfolio-selection/. Accessed 1 Oct.

2022.


"Modeling of ESG Factors Influence on Both Long Term Risk Management and Return

on Investment." Research Gate, Sylvie Formánková, Nov. 2018,

www.researchgate.net/publication/

329117953_Modeling_of_ESG_factors_influence_on_both_long_term_risk_management_and

_return_on_investment. Accessed 1 Oct. 2022.


"Tutorial: Pearson's Chi-square Test for Independence." Upenn, 2008,

www.ling.upenn.edu/~clight/chisquared.htm. Accessed 1 Oct. 2022.


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